Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fffbc3b715fd618f5b6fde6e98f447e110613f7fec088cf62778c5ff54c3610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof MOUZ, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa940…f8b8backed Virtus.pro | 42c | 30,733$12,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,743.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed MOUZ | 60c | 11,347$6,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,760.93 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 47c | 8,777$4,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,098.77 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro | 34c | 7,651$2,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,067.19 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed MOUZ | 57c | 6,895$3,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,942.93 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked MOUZ | 59c | 5,212$3,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080.74 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ | 68c | 3,479$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.18 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked MOUZ | 58c | 3,374$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.11 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 2,784$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.31 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 2,521$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.59 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ | 58c | 2,500$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.9 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 2,494$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.24 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8c…7fcfbacked MOUZ | 57c | 1,890$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked MOUZ | 50c | 1,655$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virtus.pro | 39c | 1,590$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.04 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed MOUZ | 45c | 1,540$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.41 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed MOUZ | 61c | 1,449$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.94 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 1,280$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.05 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked MOUZ | 3c | 1,140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked MOUZ | 76c | 1,080$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.8 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.15 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Virtus.pro | 45c | 889.65$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.65 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Virtus.pro | 58c | 868.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.59 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked MOUZ | 67c | 696.99$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ | 63c | 691$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.33 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed MOUZ | 59c | 651.51$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.58 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed MOUZ | 70c | 370.59$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.41 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked MOUZ | 58c | 369.04$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed MOUZ | 28c | 340$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Virtus.pro | 37c | 308.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.11 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked MOUZ | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ | 67c | 291.83$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.9 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 211.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ | 60c | 209.05$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e29…68e3backed MOUZ | 73c | 180.06$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…6c2ebacked MOUZ | 52c | 163.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed MOUZ | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed MOUZ | 58c | 124.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed MOUZ | 21c | 113.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed MOUZ | 57c | 111.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked MOUZ | 65c | 107.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…57e0backed MOUZ | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Virtus.pro | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Virtus.pro | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…f991backed MOUZ | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed MOUZ | 58c | 79.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Virtus.pro | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed MOUZ | 78c | 62.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked MOUZ | 76c | 59.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed MOUZ | 37c | 54.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Virtus.pro | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Virtus.pro | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed MOUZ | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed MOUZ | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed MOUZ | 66c | 29.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Virtus.pro | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…4152backed MOUZ | 67c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro (BO3)Virtus.pro won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.