Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50ccf5d21bfc4b0d9dfb1b9f3903b4ada87307337429031a8dc1bd697b685083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Heroic, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Heroic | 52c | 3,844$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 51c | 3,538$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.51 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Heroic | 58c | 1,734$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heroic | 17c | 1,436$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.27 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Heroic | 34c | 1,387$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.38 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 31c | 1,238$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.54 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Heroic | 44c | 1,148$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Aurora | 74c | 947$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.01 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Heroic | 53c | 858.33$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.5 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Aurora | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Heroic | 44c | 563.98$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.15 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Heroic | 56c | 534.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Heroic | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Heroic | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Heroic | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Heroic | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Aurora | 53c | 392.38$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.42 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 79c | 391.25$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 51c | 347.07$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Aurora | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed Heroic | 43c | 277.65$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…c379backed Aurora | 66c | 219.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Aurora | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Heroic | 56c | 157.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Heroic | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…f676backed Aurora | 80c | 124.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Heroic | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Aurora | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Heroic | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Aurora | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…1f6ebacked Heroic | 53c | 64.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Aurora | 58c | 62.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Heroic | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Aurora | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…8c74backed Heroic | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Heroic | 49c | 43.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7b…b6cbbacked Heroic | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Heroic | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Heroic | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Heroic | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Heroic | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora (BO3)Aurora won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.