TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Heroic, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic38c9,146$3,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,485.571,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora61c8,814$5,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,395.0548954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Heroic50c7,508$3,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7705761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Heroic49c6,727$3,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,280.7386659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Aurora59c6,325$3,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.6618452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora61c6,042$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.716149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Heroic50c5,934$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,96720159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Aurora50c4,944$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.0919148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Aurora50c4,884$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.891233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aurora50c4,841$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.2773841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Heroic51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb64f…dc88backed Aurora53c2,473$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.884250%21 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Heroic46c2,341$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.3134146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora52c2,194$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.761,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Heroic50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Aurora55c1,807$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.1111557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ac…86d0backed Heroic30c1,576$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.293357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Aurora59c1,532$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.3827143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Heroic50c1,509$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Heroic48c1,458$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Aurora51c1,440$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed Aurora52c1,433$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68812256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Heroic39c1,384$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.8889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Heroic50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50056848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6673…8a4cbacked Aurora53c999.99$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Heroic45c888.66$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.6119743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Heroic38c823.3$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.4714537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Aurora50c813.29$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.6419943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Aurora59c808.09$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.6818075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Heroic25c803.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Heroic44c784.82$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.2631545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38e3…e46dbacked Aurora70c761.64$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.563826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Heroic46c731.82$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.1111855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic49c625$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.2585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Heroic40c624.54$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.722740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Aurora51c598.81$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.449133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Heroic48c547.48$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.791838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic21c536$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5639936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d39…b8a0backed Heroic21c535.66$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.662934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Heroic51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Heroic27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a3…48febacked Aurora54c478$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.885100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Heroic24c463.48$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.688330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Heroic25c449.93$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.491,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Heroic49c448$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.735044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x327e…2852backed Heroic42c421.39$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.71533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaed…9372backed Heroic47c417.43$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb861…27ffbacked Heroic49c408.16$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Aurora52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Heroic48c399.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1925147.1%24 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Aurora61c364.98$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.095962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked Heroic10c340.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.02626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora80c313.75$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b5…6d52backed Heroic46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1374146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic22c287.23$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1955751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Heroic41c250$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.546535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Heroic50c244.08$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.87157.7%41 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x593c…4b27backed Aurora63c235.11$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Heroic41c213.03$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3480544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d08…37a5backed Heroic40c205.39$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Heroic49c204.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3113157.3%75 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Heroic50c201.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed Aurora53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9412755.1%70 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x687c…8c91backed Aurora45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11014254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Heroic49c199.96$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.134542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e3d…b521backed Heroic20c191.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora52c175.39$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e47…3d20backed Heroic59c168.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004065%26 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora60c152.23$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3486949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Aurora52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.81275%9 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+42.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad91…389cbacked Heroic28c131.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.841428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-58.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x728a…df69backed Heroic30c131.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.673429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heroic21c129$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2537832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Aurora53c127.65$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3228…b4e3backed Heroic16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207037.1%26 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed Aurora50c123$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2714244.4%63 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Heroic33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.628244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Aurora53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Heroic31c119.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7830138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Heroic11c106.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…e095backed Heroic38c104.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…4c5abacked Aurora70c100.36$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.369478.7%74 W · 20 L+13.0wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+20.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Aurora50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504045%18 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Aurora52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4870236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Aurora67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3312862.5%80 W · 48 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3364123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Heroic47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4714948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Aurora40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Aurora43c97.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora54c90.89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.160542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Heroic23c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc913…80ddbacked Aurora61c89.19$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Heroic37c88.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.645149%25 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Heroic44c86.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3120361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Aurora58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.218349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Aurora52c76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Aurora50c75.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9222538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Heroic45c69.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52917.2%5 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1182…b6bbbacked Heroic30c64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.