Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7f9efcca50162ac3194bc514e3663d6a6d845e4085fd71538639ff81009641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Heroic, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 38c | 9,146$3,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,485.57 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 61c | 8,814$5,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,395.05 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed Heroic | 50c | 7,508$3,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,770 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Heroic | 49c | 6,727$3,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280.73 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Aurora | 59c | 6,325$3,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.66 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora | 61c | 6,042$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.7 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Heroic | 50c | 5,934$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Aurora | 50c | 4,944$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.09 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Aurora | 50c | 4,884$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 50c | 4,841$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.27 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Heroic | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Aurora | 53c | 2,473$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.88 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Heroic | 46c | 2,341$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.31 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 52c | 2,194$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.76 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Heroic | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Aurora | 55c | 1,807$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.11 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…86d0backed Heroic | 30c | 1,576$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.29 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Aurora | 59c | 1,532$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.38 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Heroic | 50c | 1,509$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Heroic | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Aurora | 51c | 1,440$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 52c | 1,433$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Heroic | 39c | 1,384$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.88 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Heroic | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked Aurora | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Heroic | 45c | 888.66$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.61 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heroic | 38c | 823.3$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.47 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Aurora | 50c | 813.29$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.64 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Aurora | 59c | 808.09$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.68 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed Heroic | 25c | 803.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Heroic | 44c | 784.82$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.26 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…e46dbacked Aurora | 70c | 761.64$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.56 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Heroic | 46c | 731.82$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.11 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 49c | 625$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.25 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…d38ebacked Heroic | 40c | 624.54$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Aurora | 51c | 598.81$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Heroic | 48c | 547.48$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic | 21c | 536$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Heroic | 21c | 535.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Heroic | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 206 | 42.2%87 W · 119 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Heroic | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked Aurora | 54c | 478$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Heroic | 24c | 463.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Heroic | 25c | 449.93$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Heroic | 49c | 448$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.73 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed Heroic | 42c | 421.39$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…9372backed Heroic | 47c | 417.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked Heroic | 49c | 408.16$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed Aurora | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Heroic | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed Aurora | 61c | 364.98$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.09 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Heroic | 10c | 340.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 80c | 313.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Heroic | 46c | 300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic | 22c | 287.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Heroic | 41c | 250$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Heroic | 50c | 244.08$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…4b27backed Aurora | 63c | 235.11$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Heroic | 41c | 213.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…37a5backed Heroic | 40c | 205.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Heroic | 49c | 204.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Heroic | 50c | 201.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Aurora | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Aurora | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Heroic | 49c | 199.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…b521backed Heroic | 20c | 191.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 52c | 175.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…3d20backed Heroic | 59c | 168.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 60c | 152.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Aurora | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad91…389cbacked Heroic | 28c | 131.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…df69backed Heroic | 30c | 131.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Heroic | 21c | 129$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Aurora | 53c | 127.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Heroic | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Aurora | 50c | 123$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Heroic | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Aurora | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Heroic | 31c | 119.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Heroic | 11c | 106.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…e095backed Heroic | 38c | 104.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Aurora | 70c | 100.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Aurora | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Aurora | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Aurora | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Heroic | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…2ecdbacked Aurora | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…1ce3backed Aurora | 43c | 97.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora | 54c | 90.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Heroic | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…80ddbacked Aurora | 61c | 89.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Heroic | 37c | 88.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Heroic | 44c | 86.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Aurora | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Aurora | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Aurora | 50c | 75.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Heroic | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Heroic | 30c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.