Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x911322470d64b68af491bdba9efe36bdc020265392f430b85770dd6b11ce8929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Aurora | 51c | 2,548$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.95 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 28c | 2,500$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.1 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Heroic | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Heroic | 56c | 1,787$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.03 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Heroic | 59c | 1,324$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.02 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 36c | 1,084$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.08 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 49c | 1,025$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.27 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Aurora | 33c | 998$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.49 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 50c | 837.54$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.78 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Aurora | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Aurora | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…f676backed Aurora | 48c | 257.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 36c | 226.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Heroic | 73c | 204.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Aurora | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Aurora | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Aurora | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Aurora | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Heroic | 49c | 78.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed Heroic | 49c | 76.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf12a…f637backed Heroic | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Aurora | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Aurora | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…d267backed Heroic | 49c | 49.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…dd8bbacked Aurora | 53c | 37.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Heroic | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Heroic | 63c | 34.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Aurora | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Heroic | 50c | 23.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Heroic | 49c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora (BO3)Aurora won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.