Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x931e94a723e4fffedf1d4302abc9ff35d96edc04e1db6e8ed38a4d4e1a3ae62c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 25c | 2,000$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.54 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 23c | 1,815$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.88 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…efa1backed Aurora | 5c | 1,780$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora | 24c | 986.26$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.14 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Tundra Esports | 72c | 887.98$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Aurora | 24c | 657.89$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 573.67$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.42 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 25c | 411.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 20c | 328.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…3d20backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 273.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 243.03$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 196.53$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Tundra Esports | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 138.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 26c | 127.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Aurora | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Aurora | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Aurora | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 77.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Aurora | 27c | 71.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…f818backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…928cbacked Aurora | 32c | 62.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…54cbbacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Tundra Esports | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO3)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.