TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$303,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$302,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,445 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x64ea…7ec5backed Yes0c23,499$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282f…3c26backed Yes23c13,640$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,123.131136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes16c13,111$2,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.0258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e2…04b9backed Yes2c9,073$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.41128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes25c9,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2507123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No75c7,778$5,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.5722550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes1c7,139$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.76494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked No75c5,351$4,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.973076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x75b0…b60abacked Yes11c5,000$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9035…ac58backed Yes25c3,400$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes41c2,076$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.1155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fe…9ffebacked Yes23c2,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fce…305bbacked Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,967$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.531,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes12c1,500$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.991936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+83%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b22…47f3backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes31c1,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3055024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…46e6backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+45.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes27c1,000$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+162.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes23c938.03$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9b…025bbacked No73c905.04$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.371435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb82e…afb1backed Yes15c857.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35c…f4ebbacked Yes2c853.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a5…3551backed Yes39c850$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6715…0e2ebacked Yes31c813$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb52…67ccbacked Yes2c799.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-42.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes19c731.03$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.97240%0 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2ddb…0dbbbacked Yes26c700$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x943a…03eebacked Yes24c699.48$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.88425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf412…3270backed Yes16c694.58$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.821330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55e…c136backed No78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c558.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.681431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5302…0b79backed Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a1…9ff1backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5198…9700backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+56.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa097…2363backed Yes23c450$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid+51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf87…708cbacked Yes2c445.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.571225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…f19dbacked Yes2c445.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ded…468dbacked Yes45c441.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Yes25c433.85$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.12450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e04…83ffbacked Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa69d…440abacked Yes30c330$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5869…071dbacked No76c302.89$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.69955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6332…a8b4backed Yes27c299.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5738…5ca3backed No80c298.36$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.961947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed No76c296.71$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.181442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07e7…4f28backed Yes20c242.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b8…7e39backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27b6…b21bbacked Yes11c210$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca87…e77dbacked Yes7c203.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd62…4e29backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebae…62c0backed Yes21c193.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38aa…664dbacked Yes26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22eb…7178backed Yes26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a66…5b1bbacked No72c136.65$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.692937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+23.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No78c128.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.134242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No76c107.05$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9426274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes20c104$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7240643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc92c…90fbbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb9…0754backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe482…2b04backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf14b…6320backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa9…cac0backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9c…6e89backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b7…2bcfbacked Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes20c98.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.662045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a39…47cbbacked Yes23c77.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8245…e060backed No75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aa0…466cbacked Yes30c68.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.811921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaae4…58b1backed Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fb…66b2backed No80c63.18$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…1d4abacked Yes24c62.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d8…f6debacked Yes39c54.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x857a…bcbbbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…8ff5backed No76c39.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7118…1d50backed No78c31.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.110555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9511619%22 W · 94 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77af…f959backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.95425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaae…4463backed No79c13.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.