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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$383,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$399,211

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $383,765 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes1c15,438$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c13,108$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.111,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b0…c771backed Yes76c12,350$9,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,419366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ea…7ec5backed Yes1c10,624$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes4c8,873$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.74290%0 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes4c8,195$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.9216729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked No72c7,416$5,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.893076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Yes43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1502941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…b60abacked Yes23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes4c4,618$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.661198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes37c3,702$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.147123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Yes8c3,400$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+205.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8814…5cc0backed Yes1c2,881$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.37100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4b…1a6bbacked Yes3c2,821$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No59c2,411$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.485837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes1c2,384$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.892250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes50c2,303$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.422550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09e2…04b9backed Yes12c2,215$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.42128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba1…673cbacked Yes5c2,138$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No38c2,005$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.9158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fce…305bbacked No54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.012646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c6…456abacked No38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-88.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88cb…133fbacked Yes38c1,917$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cef…0b52backed Yes2c1,762$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.06540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes3c1,536$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa704…867cbacked Yes40c1,504$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2322…7138backed No60c1,504$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db0…c35fbacked Yes40c1,504$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…818bbacked No60c1,504$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7663…fefdbacked No60c1,504$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b58…72bebacked Yes40c1,504$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb892…d78cbacked No60c1,504$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb11…2075backed Yes40c1,504$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea8…7d28backed Yes40c1,504$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde6c…d0d6backed No60c1,504$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c1,313$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.461431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes30c1,298$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.0587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes4c1,190$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.64047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e7…4f28backed Yes53c1,166$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Yes49c1,098$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed Yes4c1,048$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes47c1,021$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.9755032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…b6dcbacked Yes2c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992025%5 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba6…5adabacked Yes47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes3c993.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.063212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x013f…b1d7backed No40c961.07$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+162.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33a8…7de4backed Yes36c858$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.13633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…c16fbacked Yes2c837.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf632…02aabacked Yes4c826.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.337321.9%16 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93a5…3551backed No40c817.25$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes7c752.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.455024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a1…9ff1backed Yes47c740$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff6…71ccbacked Yes13c713.57$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes4c704.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f47…338ebacked Yes7c700$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.62927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16e7…132bbacked Yes2c625.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80aa…74d5backed Yes2c560$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5e…f157backed Yes6c554.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x223b…c4c3backed Yes6c538.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked No38c473$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.094742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed Yes46c439.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+66%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368b…6c3cbacked Yes3c399.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb52…67ccbacked Yes16c390.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.02520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-42.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a3…c9a6backed No42c378.58$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes20c373.14$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.55240%0 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed No56c370$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.31442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796e…a06bbacked Yes51c360.19$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9b…025bbacked No56c359.3$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.091435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c48…1de5backed No28c353.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+76.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdba…347bbacked Yes38c335.22$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bc…268fbacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed No47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1598634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1353551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes44c284$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005318.9%10 W · 43 L-8.0wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x506c…8754backed No53c258.2$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+151.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No60c251.52$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.522857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe35c…f4ebbacked Yes4c240$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes38c238.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.243330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x87f7…94e7backed Yes9c231.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba1…25d8backed No36c227.8$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.741145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-75.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No49c200$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.611619%22 W · 94 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc893…b7b0backed Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7e…9a50backed Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No54c183.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3334848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d8…f6debacked Yes63c172.55$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes42c170$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.43151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf84…acc7backed Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a1…026dbacked Yes57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.52653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa737…68f8backed No66c146.65$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.86955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa324…c18abacked No43c130$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.12657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f4…0e38backed Yes50c129$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes28c126.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.075822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef39…423bbacked No43c120$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.42458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbb…a41abacked No39c111.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.772240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762c…58cfbacked Yes41c105.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.