Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 24-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x179ed481c5875293c3f48750566ab455f7b83c0d15ce647c9550e72284a9bb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $351,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $361,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c98…ef88backed Yes | 7c | 34,765$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563 | 49 | 4.1%2 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes | 0c | 27,310$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3755…f2b0backed Yes | 0c | 21,282$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…4568backed Yes | 8c | 16,500$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 5c | 13,000$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,770$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 5c | 7,800$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.87 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 4c | 7,147$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…133fbacked Yes | 5c | 6,351$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 2c | 5,130$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 3c | 4,668$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,335$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed Yes | 5c | 3,762$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…59d0backed Yes | 6c | 3,406$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…6223backed Yes | 2c | 3,111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,057$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,695$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 2,577$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…5941backed Yes | 3c | 2,454$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 2c | 2,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…1c09backed Yes | 4c | 2,282$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Yes | 5c | 2,174$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,791$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…8184backed Yes | 6c | 1,656$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…134dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,580$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,404$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 2c | 1,289$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…04bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,025$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,014$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c0…ee80backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…280ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 5c | 950.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 2c | 803.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcea0…29c5backed Yes | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked Yes | 6c | 700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…583fbacked Yes | 5c | 580$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…3a23backed Yes | 6c | 535$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…b704backed Yes | 4c | 455.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed Yes | 6c | 442.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…b41dbacked Yes | 4c | 442.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…156ebacked Yes | 5c | 439.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…6f7fbacked Yes | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…466cbacked Yes | 6c | 412.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8814…5cc0backed Yes | 3c | 407$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…5d61backed Yes | 5c | 395.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 5c | 371.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes | 4c | 353.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…30aabacked Yes | 5c | 280.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…db0dbacked Yes | 5c | 267.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…9e4abacked Yes | 4c | 256.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…4293backed Yes | 5c | 217.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…21f2backed Yes | 10c | 100.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 24-30?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.