Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 November 24-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe6dac5dd62c3093b433991b8e5ceff0c3bb161dda1b826db5a29f782bdd8cf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5440…edd4backed Yes | 8c | 11,038$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 5c | 10,119$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.01 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,063$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 10c | 5,038$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.11 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,526$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.25 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…305bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,000$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,131$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 80c | 1,531$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.49 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 19c | 1,144$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 7c | 1,025$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes | 8c | 700$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 431.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 7c | 330.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…466cbacked Yes | 12c | 253.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b73…3d80backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 18cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 November 24-30?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.