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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 November 24-30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$405,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$382,941

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,519 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x104a…5b05backed Yes16c24,396$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,020.488017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes6c20,999$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.887123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes8c18,199$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.95494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes5c16,147$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.7723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x282f…3c26backed Yes21c14,620$3,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.21136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes18c13,399$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,445.86190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c11,521$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.051,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…a907backed Yes21c6,373$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b2…865ebacked Yes5c5,489$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…198fbacked Yes6c4,431$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Yes24c4,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90c1…f6bebacked Yes9c4,142$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes15c3,500$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.395024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed Yes13c3,024$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.148634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes7c2,433$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.25160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f5f…4fe7backed Yes2c2,299$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e0…b240backed No79c2,079$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.57520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-74.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d491backed Yes15c2,020$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1707…de6ebacked Yes15c1,982$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e2…6078backed Yes16c1,951$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.860%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87f7…94e7backed Yes3c1,792$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Yes19c1,611$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae10…cb8bbacked No79c1,540$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-74.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e88…2a2ebacked Yes3c1,370$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e4f…569cbacked Yes4c1,285$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c1,255$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.551431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes2c1,157$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.13320%0 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes12c1,144$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.111127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+162.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c7…96c3backed Yes21c1,093$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes2c1,058$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd224…9f9bbacked Yes13c1,054$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3755…f2b0backed Yes2c918.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes12c662.79$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733c…d092backed Yes14c622.06$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes2c593.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db2…1fc3backed Yes12c523$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab1c…35a7backed Yes6c501.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fec…728ebacked Yes12c499.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf4…680ebacked Yes20c499.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2220…9f1cbacked Yes21c480.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x573c…1b61backed No79c461.25$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x392b…29d5backed Yes22c457.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes10c456.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.82240%0 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc95…5eb2backed Yes17c405.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes14c400$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.95250%0 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1376…24f5backed Yes12c395.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe008…8ff5backed Yes12c375.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.02850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes11c348.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93b4…8cd1backed Yes5c346.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5299…045abacked Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes11c315.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.693915.4%6 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes16c305.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9490%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bab…710abacked Yes15c284.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa0…466cbacked Yes15c272.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.461921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a8…7de4backed Yes10c239$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.08633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes14c221.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.292240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes15c209.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b73…3d80backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18bc…2ecdbacked Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…1a20backed Yes12c199.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick18cpaid+178.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8639…f903backed Yes16c160.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5701…463abacked Yes9c149.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+37.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No79c143.28$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.287746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes8c140$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.765444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18e0…be59backed Yes22c130.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bbe…e5fcbacked Yes15c130.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.62per pick13cpaid+576.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x792f…a740backed Yes20c125.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7170%0 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157619.7%15 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5598…3adbbacked Yes8c120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20385.3%2 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdeb9…b55ebacked No80c111.47$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.29875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d55…a7ddbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f85…e93cbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad65…84e6backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa248…04f3backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…38e6backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee5…5b0ebacked Yes14c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…6e89backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ee…842cbacked Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes14c97.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.812045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3f…81ecbacked Yes22c92.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes12c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.087424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x715c…30aabacked Yes12c89.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c7…cabebacked Yes13c86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.18425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x386e…3463backed Yes13c86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.184632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95bc…b082backed Yes20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x834b…e8c9backed Yes16c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8404…1553backed Yes22c72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8814…5cc0backed Yes15c69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…f956backed Yes19c66.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d93…1cafbacked Yes23c61.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…a66bbacked Yes18c55.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.06812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid+150%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f2…4ce6backed No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c06…dd56backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.22683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77d3…9b14backed No79c17.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.