Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1980cab1bb15e0259b4afb1a4d5c54ab7a9f82555b2d71f408219aa72005525c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3755…f2b0backed Yes | 1c | 16,987$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,680$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 0c | 12,012$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…ef88backed Yes | 4c | 11,079$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 49 | 4.1%2 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed Yes | 10c | 11,001$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 8c | 8,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.97 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…257cbacked Yes | 7c | 5,732$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…88a6backed Yes | 3c | 5,165$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,398$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.64 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…0f57backed Yes | 0c | 3,156$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 8c | 3,107$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.7 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 8c | 1,800$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 6c | 1,781$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…059ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,753$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 2c | 1,699$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd224…9f9bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,461$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e65…e909backed Yes | 2c | 1,376$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 4c | 1,229$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593e…80aabacked Yes | 8c | 1,176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…1339backed Yes | 9c | 1,092$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,068$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…e9cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…f490backed Yes | 2c | 913$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 7c | 895.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20cd…5634backed Yes | 6c | 877.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…de79backed Yes | 6c | 736.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…b41dbacked Yes | 5c | 708.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…c4c3backed Yes | 5c | 554.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70e…19e7backed Yes | 3c | 535.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233e…ca5ebacked Yes | 3c | 499.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 2c | 481.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…f5b7backed Yes | 4c | 444.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…a8cabacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…fb62backed Yes | 5c | 384.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…7922backed Yes | 9c | 368.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…3adbbacked Yes | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…500abacked Yes | 6c | 348.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b73…3d80backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…6ce1backed Yes | 5c | 273.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…cb00backed Yes | 5c | 227.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a0…20dabacked Yes | 10c | 196.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…cdf5backed Yes | 6c | 176.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…a7ddbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 10c | 143$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…a740backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…08a2backed Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 November 24-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.