Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ffbb65cdbe69a4799073085e88fc9677dc2892b0ffce72ef3c9ff72b9c16718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7e2…826cbacked 1win | 30c | 6,757$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 65c | 4,203$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.92 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 34c | 4,031$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.33 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Heroic | 71c | 3,337$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.11 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Heroic | 58c | 3,157$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.4 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Heroic | 71c | 2,875$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.27 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed 1win | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed 1win | 18c | 1,820$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.4 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Heroic | 61c | 1,689$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.04 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed 1win | 45c | 1,114$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…f908backed Heroic | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 1win | 31c | 967.52$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.73 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…349fbacked 1win | 45c | 547.93$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.57 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Heroic | 73c | 544.53$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.35 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked 1win | 33c | 473.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed 1win | 27c | 450$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Heroic | 67c | 448.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…71e1backed 1win | 31c | 381.94$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4965…176fbacked 1win | 46c | 360$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Heroic | 56c | 332.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.66 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…14eebacked 1win | 36c | 291.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed 1win | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Heroic | 59c | 255.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked 1win | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed 1win | 12c | 242.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed 1win | 40c | 230$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed 1win | 20c | 200.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked 1win | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed 1win | 37c | 198.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heroic | 72c | 172.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked 1win | 46c | 165.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Heroic | 61c | 159$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Heroic | 56c | 157.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Heroic | 76c | 135$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 50c | 114.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…d3eebacked 1win | 16c | 112.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed 1win | 43c | 103.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Heroic | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…6b3fbacked Heroic | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 1win | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Heroic | 77c | 97.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…2f37backed Heroic | 61c | 85.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.9wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…3160backed 1win | 23c | 84.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed 1win | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed 1win | 41c | 58.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Heroic | 58c | 42.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed 1win | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Heroic | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Heroic | 55c | 38.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed 1win | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…e968backed 1win | 50c | 31.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed 1win | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…91b9backed Heroic | 57c | 17.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win (BO3)Heroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.