Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05565bf6dd57153a2f5605b5091bcb2d59dc5f9944c5e18c8d0f0286c8a868e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 22c | 4,784$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,747 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…12e9backed Heroic | 44c | 4,026$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Heroic | 45c | 4,018$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.12 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 1win | 60c | 4,000$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,398.29 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Heroic | 27c | 2,320$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.94 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked 1win | 77c | 1,609$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.63 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…b76bbacked 1win | 8c | 1,400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed 1win | 9c | 940.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed 1win | 66c | 910.71$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…d3eebacked 1win | 75c | 845.02$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.16 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 76c | 766.06$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.85 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Heroic | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked 1win | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4965…176fbacked Heroic | 36c | 570$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed 1win | 77c | 491.79$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…71e1backed 1win | 68c | 459.71$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…6b3fbacked Heroic | 5c | 400$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked 1win | 66c | 396.14$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Heroic | 16c | 389.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.34 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…0a84backed Heroic | 47c | 335.6$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed 1win | 68c | 299.12$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Heroic | 50c | 293.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Heroic | 37c | 269$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Heroic | 65c | 266.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.13 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Heroic | 39c | 258.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.46 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed 1win | 50c | 239.89$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…55b0backed Heroic | 47c | 227.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Heroic | 45c | 187.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Heroic | 37c | 174.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed 1win | 78c | 162$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Heroic | 39c | 141$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed 1win | 69c | 137$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Heroic | 25c | 129.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Heroic | 56c | 100.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed 1win | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce7…cc16backed 1win | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Heroic | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Heroic | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Heroic | 55c | 99.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…d49cbacked Heroic | 47c | 81.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked 1win | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…db5cbacked 1win | 71c | 74.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heroic | 40c | 73.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed 1win | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed 1win | 56c | 64.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked 1win | 73c | 60.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked 1win | 67c | 59.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3f…b964backed 1win | 66c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Heroic | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed 1win | 44c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked Heroic | 37c | 40.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0808…3aafbacked Heroic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 1win | 44c | 38.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Heroic | 56c | 38.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked 1win | 52c | 35.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heroic | 49c | 34.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…91b9backed Heroic | 62c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Heroic | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed 1win | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed 1win | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…12c4backed 1win | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…e968backed 1win | 48c | 29.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1adf…733fbacked 1win | 64c | 29.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…9249backed 1win | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…569fbacked 1win | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…846cbacked Heroic | 49c | 24.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163f…ab55backed Heroic | 63c | 21.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed 1win | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…e530backed Heroic | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…fae5backed Heroic | 62c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win (BO3)Heroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.