Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd2c2ea91fe43a1d6e9c0b18232908607ae63faa5e9760cdf90b61021c886ba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 51c | 124$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 51c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win (BO3)Heroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.