Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f55fc8d09087fe24f24be123e334e2aeaa26a345f3f398dc82d65693bf81797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 50c | 12,047$6,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,969.15 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 8,001$3,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.71 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Tundra Esports | 49c | 6,860$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,526.9 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 6,408$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,129.75 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 4,000$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.71 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 3,145$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.63 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…f062backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 2,578$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 1,801$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.24 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…86d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports | 50c | 1,451$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.6 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…4b27backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 960.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Tundra Esports | 54c | 734.02$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.02 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 663.56$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Tundra Esports | 69c | 655.59$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.01 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 632$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.84 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 600$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 600$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9571…1d98backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 585.43$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Tundra Esports | 36c | 561.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.17 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 558.27$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 479.45$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…55b0backed Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 342.86$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Tundra Esports | 72c | 339.54$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73b…7155backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…4d65backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 300$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 243.01$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 240.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 210$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 204.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 202.75$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…d549backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 196.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 193.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 133.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 127.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 87.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 66.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5551…3d58backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 42.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 14.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Tundra Esports | 72c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Nigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.