Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f2d03471a34b7e2e68bd73a27cdedb63f25721274cd86d4ffd00a72eb5f9fde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Tundra Esports, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 3,527$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.58 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…b76bbacked Tundra Esports | 4c | 2,487$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 2,142$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.22 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Tundra Esports | 43c | 1,400$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.47 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Tundra Esports | 3c | 1,400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…86d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 1,199$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 1,157$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.09 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Tundra Esports | 64c | 1,010$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.95 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Tundra Esports | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…f062backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 842.58$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Tundra Esports | 2c | 721.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 636.92$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.76 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 622.32$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.8 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 600$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.3 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 504.76$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Tundra Esports | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 480$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6728…7b8fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 400$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 383.54$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.97 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…f676backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 363.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9975…e7e6backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…55b0backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 281.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports | 54c | 281.33$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 247.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 221$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 213.71$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 202.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 170$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Tundra Esports | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Tundra Esports | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 115.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…78aebacked Tundra Esports | 34c | 89.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…31b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 88.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Tundra Esports | 41c | 84.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…2e55backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 78.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 66.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tundra Esports | 45c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Tundra Esports | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5551…3d58backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 49.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Tundra Esports | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…8b6cbacked Tundra Esports | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 30.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…f0d2backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…7796backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…05e1backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 25.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…f818backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Nigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.