Venezuela · resolved market
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x179791767d3bad170d6c8670821bca9cb4a0d0c11bf13f5023d4b6adf2d009a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 6,366$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 0c | 3,292$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,392$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,629$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 11c | 1,344$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,058$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 15c | 665.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 650$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 25c | 544.32$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 15c | 470.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…6870backed Yes | 42c | 350$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 343.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 51c | 334.08$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 14c | 283.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 12c | 172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 66c | 153.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…5e57backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 39c | 126.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 20c | 119.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…e352backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…ae93backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked Yes | 12c | 97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…cb03backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717a…7272backed Yes | 20c | 74.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 78c | 74.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 76c | 72.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Yes | 44c | 55.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 48c | 36.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…630dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc5…c0bebacked No | 53c | 22.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb081…2245backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…a314backed No | 76c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?this page
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 30%?Yes won
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 70%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.