Venezuela · resolved market
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x369a8e8477f567964629465f05dd66486b4bc530a65505cc8cc529209e5b1f2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc559…d7b9backed No | 1c | 5,985$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 0c | 5,450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 0c | 5,327$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…45ebbacked No | 2c | 4,856$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…71c3backed No | 1c | 4,747$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,369$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 2c | 1,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…4931backed No | 3c | 1,190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2169…612cbacked No | 4c | 1,005$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…3787backed No | 3c | 613.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No | 3c | 592.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379e…fd36backed No | 4c | 587.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac8…c177backed No | 2c | 585$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 3c | 483.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…d531backed No | 4c | 461.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked No | 5c | 411.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…f5edbacked No | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 65c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 30%?this page
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?No won
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 70%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.