South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-10-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c73ae31fb9d36729416238019b484ff6dc52799e82747772f6ad893e07aae9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 4,242$3,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.88 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa401…5cd1backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Yes | 26c | 768.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…2f6bbacked Yes | 21c | 696.5$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 79c | 696.5$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.26 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 28c | 650.46$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…6a3ebacked Yes | 27c | 569.73$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 22c | 445.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…36f2backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 25c | 235.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 73c | 177.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 26c | 169.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0e6bbacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a44…3fd2backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75babacked No | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…5d7bbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 29c | 90.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 26c | 76.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 28c | 69.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…a297backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…9803backed Yes | 19c | 61.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 75c | 32.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-10-03?this page
- Will CA Tigre vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2025-10-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.