Serie A · resolved market
Will Genoa win on 2025-09-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeca0f1b329a252c989612baaaf62d17e0e9cbbb1d087d5b009a6632ea325312d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 11,668$3,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,594.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 9c | 5,858$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 69c | 4,000$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked No | 71c | 3,425$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…f167backed No | 69c | 3,144$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…3dacbacked No | 70c | 2,429$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.96 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 77c | 1,748$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.68 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 67c | 1,632$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.57 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…b859backed Yes | 31c | 1,573$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 34c | 1,371$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 66c | 1,306$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.9 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 30c | 1,134$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.29 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed Yes | 1c | 1,131$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 33c | 827.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.7 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 5c | 550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 68c | 381.97$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 68c | 168.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 30c | 133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 31c | 128.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 31c | 108.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 67c | 106.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Yes | 32c | 97.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 30c | 91.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 67c | 78.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…4f5ebacked Yes | 31c | 69.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…6834backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 30c | 59.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…1733backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ee…d511backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…dfeebacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Genoa win on 2025-09-29?this page
- Will Genoa vs. Lazio end in a draw?No won
- Will Lazio win on 2025-09-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.