Serie A · resolved market
Will Genoa vs. Lazio end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb864c28c985e4b1e634e3f944445b49192d0deabf1419fee58f20e1637c54a6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 32c | 6,988$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.04 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 68c | 5,000$3,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.18 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed No | 68c | 2,925$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 33c | 1,512$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 68c | 893.09$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.79 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 77c | 699.35$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.46 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 593$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 67c | 570.51$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.27 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 67c | 526.38$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.71 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…d383backed Yes | 33c | 515.15$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 68c | 442.5$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 33c | 303.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 33c | 303$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 80c | 232$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 33c | 224$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 11c | 224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 26c | 190.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 112.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…4f5ebacked Yes | 33c | 87.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 66c | 73.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 67c | 58.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 33c | 46.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…8a2abacked No | 68c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 67c | 21.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed No | 67c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Genoa vs. Lazio end in a draw?this page
- Will Genoa win on 2025-09-29?No won
- Will Lazio win on 2025-09-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.