Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6d4633452c58c2d9bc0205a34ee80032e1796eeb98b6ffd22dc7096d738292f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 78c | 4,402$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 7c | 3,531$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 23c | 2,292$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.37 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,488$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.87 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 1,245$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed No | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 23c | 455.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked No | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed No | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 72c | 275.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…6a00backed No | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 30c | 195.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 71c | 178$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 29c | 175$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 71c | 172.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 26c | 163$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 27c | 158.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 28c | 119.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 112.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8657…5741backed No | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…af9cbacked No | 75c | 102.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…088bbacked No | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…df1bbacked No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…f960backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…a734backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…2077backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…2649backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ff…3eafbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…b18ebacked No | 74c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 70c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-27?Yes won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.