Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x916d15ccf7f9d3cdf719fd80b6a6325e61007746fc300d59b8f62c1a8d6ca80a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $737,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $605,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $737,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 4c | 104,224$4,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.16 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 1c | 72,614$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.76 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 51,126$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.47 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 47,100$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.72 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b2…3aa1backed Yes | 6c | 45,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,774$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 16,664$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 8c | 10,876$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…92dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 7c | 8,046$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.8 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…4841backed Yes | 7c | 7,920$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.17 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 8c | 5,984$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…0a94backed Yes | 3c | 5,896$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…882abacked Yes | 8c | 3,879$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…b05dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,567$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 3,509$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.57 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…d29ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,207$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…5f0fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 2,989$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.18 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…e955backed Yes | 7c | 2,579$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,315$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 2,246$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 2,177$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…c5aebacked Yes | 5c | 2,172$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,143$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed Yes | 1c | 2,065$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…ae1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,880$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,797$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…d98bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,721$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,715$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…402fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3eb…3d21backed Yes | 1c | 1,329$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…4910backed Yes | 8c | 1,299$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6308…d793backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,150$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,146$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,088$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…01c3backed Yes | 7c | 1,034$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 999.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 2c | 893.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…6c97backed Yes | 3c | 846.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 2c | 751.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 734.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…b065backed Yes | 7c | 719.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 26cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…043bbacked Yes | 7c | 711.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…94e7backed Yes | 7c | 668.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…3bffbacked Yes | 8c | 664.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 7c | 656.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…44e5backed Yes | 7c | 627.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…06d0backed Yes | 3c | 591.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed Yes | 8c | 560$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 517.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…de39backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 11c | 440$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 6c | 399.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d36…eeeabacked Yes | 8c | 392.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 7c | 340$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…46d6backed Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ea…7005backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 8c | 255.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…bc20backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…524ebacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc0…b949backed Yes | 8c | 225.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…1f0abacked Yes | 6c | 224.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 5c | 200.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…f366backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…810cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…b385backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…4427backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf071…cbcbbacked Yes | 6c | 179.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed Yes | 7c | 169.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…44f7backed Yes | 7c | 155$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…1befbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…a3e9backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c3…2982backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by October 31?this page
- US strikes Iran by October 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.