Music · resolved market
Taylor Swift on top two spots of Billboard Hot 100 for Nov 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa61c5f39fbecef5cae551907414183af3c7179fcc9237a0b6e264b29dcf336b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x058d…bbabbacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes | 5c | 1,701$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,435$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e4…5557backed Yes | 7c | 1,075$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Yes | 6c | 813.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca26…9b38backed Yes | 12c | 714.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 7c | 570$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…2e8ebacked Yes | 7c | 522.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…c73bbacked Yes | 7c | 509.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…b2d4backed Yes | 9c | 310$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 13c | 277.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 7c | 268.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed Yes | 7c | 266.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e26…fdefbacked Yes | 8c | 244.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…0a09backed Yes | 5c | 240.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 11c | 231.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 8c | 217.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 10c | 153.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.