World Politics · resolved market
Will Catherine Connolly win by 20% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b0cbf2b09b079b7ff4ac2b3d3fba40cbba1985322c110f9fc887ce02482bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 0c | 14,268$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…3b05backed Yes | 53c | 3,912$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…835abacked Yes | 38c | 3,081$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 6c | 3,000$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205e…1925backed No | 58c | 2,000$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 15c | 1,687$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.27 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 45c | 1,121$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.69 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…971ebacked Yes | 51c | 918$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…5bb8backed No | 54c | 885$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d7…dca8backed No | 56c | 878$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked No | 49c | 834.53$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…2decbacked No | 56c | 819$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…9ac1backed Yes | 57c | 707$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 9c | 702.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…03c9backed Yes | 58c | 688.69$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…f4adbacked Yes | 17c | 602.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…34b4backed Yes | 46c | 592$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…daa3backed No | 52c | 587.28$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 52c | 580$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 38c | 530.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.15 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 496.08$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.83 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…feaabacked Yes | 55c | 494$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 42c | 461.92$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.4 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 44c | 451.96$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.03 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 31c | 445.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 75c | 413$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…1f72backed No | 49c | 408$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…7d9cbacked No | 53c | 407.41$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4928backed Yes | 44c | 403$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…4238backed No | 50c | 394$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 18c | 386.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed No | 54c | 380$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…1a92backed Yes | 55c | 376$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5893…d75abacked No | 44c | 375$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2981…4f0fbacked Yes | 56c | 362$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 20c | 347.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.87 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed No | 59c | 345.95$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95d…7273backed Yes | 49c | 342$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…acc8backed No | 48c | 323.55$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…9086backed No | 43c | 317$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…2f73backed No | 45c | 304$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…6b2fbacked Yes | 59c | 301$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…c1b1backed Yes | 56c | 293.35$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…63e6backed Yes | 46c | 293$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 55c | 289.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe370…d4bdbacked Yes | 56c | 279$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 46c | 262.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.63 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 52c | 258$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e8…10dabacked No | 44c | 257$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…8bf9backed No | 42c | 251$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…12cbbacked Yes | 61c | 249.11$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 40c | 240$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 80c | 237.66$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…e795backed Yes | 56c | 235$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…6280backed Yes | 51c | 233$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7276…a190backed Yes | 60c | 224$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd7…6b11backed No | 44c | 223$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…cf2dbacked Yes | 46c | 219.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…d2eebacked Yes | 58c | 217$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 214.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…54e7backed Yes | 60c | 208.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd142…0eb6backed Yes | 53c | 205.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…e66dbacked Yes | 17c | 202.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +228.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 201.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…36a5backed Yes | 52c | 201$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…4e09backed No | 44c | 201$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…62e2backed Yes | 40c | 199.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 77c | 195.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e5…bfeebacked Yes | 58c | 195$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 31c | 190.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.65 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 53c | 187.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 53c | 182.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…62b7backed No | 46c | 179$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…ed65backed Yes | 59c | 176$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…a9c1backed Yes | 49c | 152.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 25c | 152.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbb…5d42backed No | 45c | 149$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 148.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…b1c0backed Yes | 58c | 141$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…b47fbacked No | 48c | 139$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 68c | 132$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 40c | 129.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 46c | 122.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6d…44d4backed No | 42c | 122$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 52c | 117.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…de71backed No | 47c | 112$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 47c | 110.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 45c | 110.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…1cf1backed No | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a0…8ef9backed No | 42c | 109$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…74cdbacked Yes | 51c | 104$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b9…7207backed No | 44c | 98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…72afbacked Yes | 20c | 94.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…90d0backed Yes | 53c | 93.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…47f3backed Yes | 39c | 84.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 20% or more?this page
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.