World Politics · resolved market
Will Catherine Connolly win by 15–20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c400052d8b45de6cdac343fce95a851d892a626fa6bb6399c9e2aa72f59d25c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 59c | 30,368$18,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,306.16 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…3b05backed Yes | 41c | 20,850$8,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,485.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271b…d4b0backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 0c | 6,012$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…835abacked Yes | 30c | 4,946$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 3c | 2,677$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 25c | 2,631$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.98 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205e…1925backed Yes | 43c | 2,554$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 29c | 2,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 2,008$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…8553backed No | 68c | 1,394$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…5bb8backed No | 68c | 1,365$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…990bbacked No | 68c | 1,360$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 1,319$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.85 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…04cbbacked No | 67c | 1,228$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 15c | 1,212$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 2c | 1,156$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…d5d6backed Yes | 32c | 1,112$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e94…13d6backed Yes | 32c | 1,087$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…4590backed Yes | 1c | 1,036$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 24c | 929.86$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 909.33$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.33 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…7d9cbacked Yes | 32c | 674$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 4c | 671.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 4c | 619$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 601.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…e401backed Yes | 32c | 589$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 4c | 559.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 29c | 478.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.38 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 33c | 461.92$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked Yes | 16c | 455.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4928backed Yes | 32c | 452$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes | 44c | 446.71$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 27c | 443.86$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 441.12$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…74cdbacked Yes | 29c | 411$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d7…dca8backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 48c | 400$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7276…a190backed No | 70c | 398$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…ca83backed Yes | 32c | 393$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d31cbacked Yes | 28c | 376$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…a857backed Yes | 32c | 367$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2981…4f0fbacked No | 79c | 363$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8399…49f9backed Yes | 32c | 359$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…971ebacked Yes | 32c | 353$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…dc93backed Yes | 22c | 314$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7e…3e85backed Yes | 33c | 298.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…2decbacked No | 68c | 292$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…53f4backed No | 68c | 286$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 25c | 277.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 11c | 268.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…63e6backed Yes | 33c | 268$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…8bf9backed No | 73c | 261$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 260.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…1f72backed No | 70c | 257$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 15c | 256$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…cfccbacked Yes | 33c | 248$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…46ccbacked Yes | 8c | 242.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 43c | 239.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…c44abacked Yes | 32c | 234$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…34b4backed Yes | 32c | 231$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 222.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95d…7273backed Yes | 33c | 219$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c4…6f82backed Yes | 32c | 215$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 20c | 213.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 31c | 191.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 31c | 190$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…b1c0backed Yes | 24c | 187$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd288…64e4backed Yes | 64c | 187$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273e…7bfbbacked Yes | 33c | 182$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…e795backed No | 67c | 181$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 33c | 163.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…72afbacked Yes | 15c | 162.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…4238backed No | 68c | 160$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5893…d75abacked No | 69c | 153$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd7…6b11backed No | 73c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…acc8backed Yes | 27c | 138$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe370…d4bdbacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…769dbacked Yes | 20c | 134$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e8…10dabacked Yes | 19c | 134$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…9ac1backed Yes | 20c | 130.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…2f73backed No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…bc23backed Yes | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6c…3647backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…1cf1backed No | 58c | 116$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 26c | 114.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…daa3backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…de71backed No | 70c | 103$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82f…eb6fbacked No | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778f…fb61backed Yes | 29c | 102$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e5…bfeebacked Yes | 28c | 102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…cd96backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ba…dd63backed No | 67c | 97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 15–20%?this page
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 20% or more?Yes won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.