World Politics · resolved market
Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe739ebfeb0dea31291efa6ab39627c9d8ad09fedb77136bc49df12b48871eb1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae5e…4046backed Yes | 30c | 1,249$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 3c | 983.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 5c | 935.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 17c | 818$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.06 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…286fbacked Yes | 32c | 813.63$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 654.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 509.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 8cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…5fa4backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 63c | 269.14$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 26c | 199.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 21c | 191.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 72c | 123.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 122.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 70c | 122.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 73c | 112.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 70c | 41.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…8ad5backed No | 79c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?this page
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 20% or more?Yes won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.