World Politics · resolved market
Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f440311e09dce3da9b6f793d6748026c5adc09e14983db5fdbff6b85b577ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 2c | 3,868$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,905$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 14c | 999.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 10c | 995.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…286fbacked Yes | 16c | 937.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 12c | 817.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 8c | 706.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 20c | 678.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked Yes | 5c | 555.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 10c | 537$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 12c | 468.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…72afbacked Yes | 12c | 441.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060e…1961backed Yes | 23c | 430.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 396.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 10c | 293.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 10c | 255.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 21c | 233.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 213.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 7c | 213$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 7c | 190.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…c504backed Yes | 26c | 185.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x918e…0a31backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc43a…349ebacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 129.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 13c | 129.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 14c | 112.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…94b7backed No | 74c | 46.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?this page
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 20% or more?Yes won
- Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 20% or more?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%?No won
- Will another candidate win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.