AI · resolved market
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6302839a6fb2ee0e1c0b62942b3c2cb83c3e672c002fbbbad8b00932afcdc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 23c | 7,791$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,980.42 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 9c | 6,324$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,732.6 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 22c | 3,401$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.71 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed No | 77c | 2,314$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…e5ffbacked Yes | 74c | 2,139$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked No | 71c | 2,090$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,473$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.31 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 20c | 1,334$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.17 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 22c | 1,110$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 17c | 993.26$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.17 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Yes | 73c | 938.82$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…9f2abacked Yes | 60c | 911.88$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 835.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 24c | 795.31$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.83 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 54c | 582.72$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.86 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 23c | 494.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.65 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 17c | 440.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.02 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 11c | 392.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.56 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 22c | 357.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 50c | 322.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a655backed Yes | 15c | 244.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…331dbacked Yes | 39c | 241.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…9ad7backed Yes | 63c | 241.02$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 200.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de7…183cbacked No | 56c | 179.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…afa2backed Yes | 30c | 159.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…73c2backed Yes | 33c | 127.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…452ebacked Yes | 21c | 121.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…f704backed Yes | 80c | 119.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked Yes | 79c | 114.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…5495backed Yes | 28c | 108.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…0063backed Yes | 60c | 104.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked No | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 18c | 97.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…3c5abacked No | 14c | 93.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +260.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…ca72backed Yes | 69c | 85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 80c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0194…eb56backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…bbffbacked Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 40c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…2c34backed Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 26c | 43.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…7283backed No | 80c | 43.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…e962backed Yes | 39c | 38.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…0c76backed Yes | 80c | 37.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e2…daf5backed Yes | 28c | 36.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 64c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…1d12backed Yes | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…7eecbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…bd2ebacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…d155backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…c97cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.