TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$979,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$961,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $979,746 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 347 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No78c63,137$48,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,155.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d41…206abacked Yes23c57,021$13,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,053.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No73c36,448$26,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,954.91758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No80c26,327$20,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,374.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes44c22,574$10,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,014.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes2c19,284$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-84%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec1c…5452backed Yes1c18,166$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes40c17,128$6,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,765.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes14c14,365$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.39120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes6c12,666$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddac…037fbacked Yes20c12,340$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c11,962$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked No74c11,784$8,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes29c10,473$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c10,100$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-78.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes17c9,408$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No74c9,352$6,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,431.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…ea15backed Yes9c9,279$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c8,951$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.931822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes0c8,836$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c8,476$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.575418.5%10 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No74c8,206$6,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,151.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Yes13c8,143$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes11c7,898$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes16c7,828$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+614.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No62c7,794$4,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes13c7,740$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes21c7,505$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes11c7,244$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c8…a4dfbacked Yes7c7,157$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.2170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ea…c245backed Yes5c6,740$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes1c5,716$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2836…a0cdbacked No70c5,416$3,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes20c5,410$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes21c5,402$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes9c5,394$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8964…0becbacked No78c5,269$4,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.41450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…e696backed No69c5,252$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9308…e2f5backed Yes31c5,179$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes6c5,064$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes18c4,524$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.461338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc1f…92aebacked Yes21c4,333$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No68c4,283$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d8…1cdfbacked Yes12c4,002$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes11c4,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked Yes9c3,919$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1b…947ebacked Yes1c3,793$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes40c3,650$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes24c3,584$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No51c3,559$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No73c3,549$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.381637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…e2c6backed Yes5c3,311$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes27c3,288$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No58c3,015$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc2…32eebacked Yes29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed No64c2,682$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes24c2,652$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes26c2,493$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108c…7d81backed Yes19c2,484$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fda…01d5backed No75c2,449$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+78.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes26c2,416$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No71c2,364$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed Yes15c2,278$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x494c…c75ebacked Yes3c2,269$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76fc…e26bbacked Yes3c2,237$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes19c2,222$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.46633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes19c2,218$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes48c2,200$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Yes14c2,195$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes20c2,185$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c2,132$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.6527429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes23c2,113$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.24425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4af…24e5backed Yes19c2,095$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…13febacked Yes5c2,094$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes3c2,077$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes34c2,008$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.013630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes29c2,000$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No78c2,000$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-68%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes10c1,944$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004f…9612backed Yes19c1,892$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No74c1,858$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.915100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes3c1,834$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes18c1,700$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes37c1,672$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf26e…43dcbacked Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No54c1,643$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes17c1,568$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80aa…73debacked Yes14c1,565$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e94…b222backed Yes1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5e…49edbacked Yes7c1,467$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No64c1,427$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed Yes56c1,409$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d7…e13cbacked No75c1,361$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No78c1,356$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab33…7d21backed Yes9c1,340$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No73c1,302$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No50c1,273$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+65.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes7c1,267$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes41c1,256$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes30c1,224$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.