Earnings · resolved market
Will Progress Software (PRGS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70536feb531c08c7bbe808959246ba5f4eaf07ed045f532fe41d404e93e3809f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,728$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 6c | 2,088$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 17c | 1,486$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.63 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked No | 23c | 854.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 470.52$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 21c | 457.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed No | 26c | 384.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 14c | 360.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 20c | 336.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…571abacked Yes | 78c | 256.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 16c | 249.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 202.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 18c | 202.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 80c | 201.23$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed No | 21c | 146.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 17c | 124.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…8aefbacked Yes | 53c | 93.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…9ceabacked No | 17c | 92.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed No | 20c | 90.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…b9eebacked No | 18c | 78.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90e…30efbacked Yes | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 28c | 72.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…b623backed No | 44c | 53.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…9a13backed Yes | 77c | 47.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…a452backed Yes | 79c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 79c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…aa1fbacked Yes | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 77cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.