Earnings · resolved market
Will Bullish (BLSH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc0c088a52d0cda3ee32b6cbd102abde570875a76ae1e90d261f89a2974ed7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8560…5847backed No | 3c | 1,978$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Yes | 75c | 837.65$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 302.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 10c | 290.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791c…7910backed No | 38c | 262.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 37c | 214.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 57c | 193.93$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 43c | 180$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed Yes | 54c | 176.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 68c | 171.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…220ebacked No | 43c | 170.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 62c | 162.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…bc7cbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60af…10cfbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…7e99backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…ec9cbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 89.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 73c | 87.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 22c | 76.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked No | 32c | 63.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…fc4abacked No | 38c | 63.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 32c | 53.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 39c | 52.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…b623backed No | 46c | 46.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed No | 30c | 45.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…232abacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2fccbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5119…e038backed Yes | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…69d8backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 57c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed No | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Yes | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c38…e477backed Yes | 64c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…4e1ebacked Yes | 67c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…ffd8backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…008bbacked Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.