Middle East · resolved market
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x533c3aa29c4a0185add977f6236054788965bfdd9b3ae64dfb6a74f8a595967c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd733…38cabacked Yes | 5c | 23,211$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 13c | 16,032$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes | 4c | 13,330$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 9,742$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 9,235$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.11 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 5c | 7,786$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.45 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 6c | 7,277$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.49 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed Yes | 6c | 7,118$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 5,996$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.61 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,642$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.8 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526a…6238backed Yes | 5c | 4,185$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 3,972$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 4c | 3,872$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,572$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 17c | 3,142$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.49 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 7c | 2,705$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207d…7a98backed Yes | 24c | 2,500$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…b39dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,475$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 5c | 2,184$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…0611backed Yes | 5c | 2,090$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…2994backed Yes | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 3c | 2,003$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e38…8fbdbacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,865$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa628…9d0fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…8b98backed Yes | 2c | 1,599$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 1,253$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 9c | 1,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,153$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 6c | 1,018$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 4c | 905.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 6c | 896.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 12c | 891.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…953dbacked Yes | 5c | 830.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 13c | 800$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…9e71backed Yes | 30c | 766.23$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…3543backed Yes | 4c | 734.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf071…cbcbbacked Yes | 4c | 731.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…17ebbacked Yes | 4c | 658.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4958backed Yes | 5c | 609.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 500.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 6c | 476.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 467.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 440.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 437.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 400.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…002fbacked Yes | 9c | 379.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…5bf4backed Yes | 5c | 371.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1c…6e03backed Yes | 17c | 360$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 4c | 345$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 5c | 330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…73b2backed Yes | 6c | 325.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…5bd4backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 10c | 297.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 78c | 288.46$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 74c | 285$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23dc…8908backed Yes | 8c | 284.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ba…fb41backed Yes | 8c | 253.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…e370backed Yes | 4c | 250.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…286fbacked Yes | 13c | 249.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…d8dcbacked Yes | 5c | 244.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…a79abacked Yes | 5c | 227.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…ffaebacked Yes | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…73c8backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…9d07backed Yes | 6c | 187.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…1430backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…4aa1backed Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 28c | 145.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2da…9900backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 74c | 58.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb7…343cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…151ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.