Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump send the national guard to San Francisco by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f13b8323a4dcb9dc44e4a8d1a81b4f86afba2a88320dd7f627bc04373ec493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 19c | 773.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 79c | 730.18$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 78c | 673.33$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 492.41$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.29 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 72c | 426.14$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 19c | 355$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 56c | 202.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 79c | 198.28$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 71c | 190.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 183.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 175$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 23c | 167.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…5442backed Yes | 45c | 126$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 80c | 115.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 55c | 115.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 20c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 64c | 94.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 24c | 82.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…e101backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 24c | 75.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…a154backed Yes | 23c | 68.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 51c | 64.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…8b4bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…8c69backed Yes | 46c | 32.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 57c | 31.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…3f7dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…5665backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump send the national guard to San Francisco by December 31?this page
- Will Trump send the national guard to Baltimore by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Boston by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Detroit by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to New York City by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Seattle by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.