Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump send the national guard to New York City by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34b5d2f67b52558a1abd70ce12f657c28d00639e5cdd24c6e63cf7a82e07a36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 27c | 2,210$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 72c | 2,206$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.76 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 781.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 80c | 745$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.86 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 693.72$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.25 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 67c | 682.57$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.74 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 485.35$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.59 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 7c | 377.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 28c | 318.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 74c | 316.07$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 28c | 299.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 29c | 250.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 230.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 214.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 172.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…f6e7backed No | 67c | 172.16$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…4d67backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…9875backed No | 73c | 142.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 74c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 74c | 112.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 28c | 74.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 61.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 23c | 55.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…5a03backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 76c | 47.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefb…f02cbacked Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebc…cadebacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…918abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f49…53debacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…59a1backed No | 77c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump send the national guard to New York City by December 31?this page
- Will Trump send the national guard to Baltimore by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Boston by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Detroit by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to San Francisco by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send the national guard to Seattle by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.