Movies · resolved market
"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 74?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96dab3df931e9bea24dece049bf5632392fb83a185686c42a07e4a28191c6594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 974$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 44c | 583.76$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 20c | 541$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 524.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 40c | 314.2$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 80c | 298$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Yes | 7c | 291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked No | 80c | 213$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 80c | 166$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 153.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 14c | 143.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 54c | 132.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed No | 67c | 125.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 55c | 113.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 69c | 106.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 20c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…b8d7backed Yes | 35c | 74.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 61.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 60c | 56.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…c40fbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…4e3ebacked Yes | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…56c6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- "The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 74?this page
- "The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is 75 or higher?No won
- "The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 45 and 59?Yes won
- "The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 45?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.