Movies · resolved market
"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 45 and 59?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35d608ca0a604159736f122a2f97a141aa6e35920bf1ed4cbb1eeb8684000250
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 19c | 521.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 422.79$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.62 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 79c | 353.23$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 55c | 342.72$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 58c | 314$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 49c | 313.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 42c | 302$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8153backed No | 9c | 295$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…5c44backed Yes | 20c | 252.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +405%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 227.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.11 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 58c | 225$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked No | 9c | 208$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 32c | 155$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 144.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 67c | 143.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 42c | 128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 126.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 48c | 118.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 36c | 116.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 42c | 114$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked Yes | 50c | 88.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 34c | 62.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 18c | 62.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 29c | 57.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…421bbacked Yes | 79c | 50.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…215fbacked Yes | 78c | 43.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 30c | 42.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 37.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…8ac9backed Yes | 78c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- "The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 45 and 59?this page
- "The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is 75 or higher?No won
- "The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 74?No won
- "The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 45?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.