TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,418,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,144,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,418,556 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c624,100$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.18392.6%1 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c268,307$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.613116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-65.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes1c139,637$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.82130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c124,166$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.83230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e63…be51backed Yes0c95,533$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec02…8a96backed Yes1c73,854$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.4760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c71,500$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5440%0 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463e…664ebacked Yes0c62,763$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.55140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c40,379$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.19530%0 W · 53 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes0c35,569$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.013225%8 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes1c29,594$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.34313.2%1 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…1857backed Yes1c26,334$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37f3…5db5backed Yes1c25,670$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a8…6fc1backed Yes1c25,634$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1f…807cbacked Yes1c25,577$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb68…d303backed Yes1c24,306$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd322…0c37backed Yes1c24,207$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c24,107$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.431942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b1e…f23bbacked Yes1c23,983$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc33…0366backed Yes1c23,972$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba7f…4fc7backed Yes1c23,918$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf9f…6415backed Yes1c23,742$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e16…25c9backed Yes1c23,614$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…43d5backed Yes1c23,587$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e6…6d10backed Yes1c23,530$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964f…d25bbacked Yes1c23,437$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435a…9c0dbacked Yes1c23,401$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22dc…b560backed Yes1c23,395$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7996…b395backed Yes1c23,388$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e92…33cabacked Yes1c23,353$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e9…7c2fbacked Yes1c23,322$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe816…4960backed Yes1c23,259$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cb…e410backed Yes1c23,220$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d63…8683backed Yes1c23,178$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2af…c101backed Yes1c23,149$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31d3…c0d0backed Yes1c23,103$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b69…78f8backed Yes1c23,092$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5787…626ebacked Yes1c23,087$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…fb90backed Yes1c23,077$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab5…2acebacked Yes1c23,054$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8c…d9c3backed Yes1c22,929$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56a…69ffbacked Yes1c22,906$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228c…a0a3backed Yes1c22,885$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd0…8494backed Yes1c22,880$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x002d…b7c3backed Yes1c22,870$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc826…d3bcbacked Yes1c22,826$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde80…fadebacked Yes1c22,789$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdbb…30d1backed Yes1c22,779$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa704…c0d1backed Yes1c22,713$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415b…b382backed Yes1c22,577$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2542…2510backed Yes1c22,560$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf62…2b72backed Yes1c22,496$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ec…321cbacked Yes1c22,455$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86bc…017ebacked Yes1c22,350$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0d…dd62backed Yes1c22,282$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes0c22,222$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6721850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes1c22,089$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+70.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea2…0533backed Yes1c22,066$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7271…d90abacked Yes1c21,636$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b9…d42cbacked Yes1c21,416$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d4…c7d0backed Yes1c21,369$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b6…1757backed Yes1c21,363$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a7…3f57backed Yes1c21,348$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8207…59a1backed Yes1c21,134$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7285…3884backed Yes1c21,124$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206e…b296backed Yes1c21,122$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9e…d818backed Yes1c21,104$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74fd…6700backed Yes1c21,063$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7066…eae8backed Yes1c20,995$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356e…8f87backed Yes1c20,938$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d8e…6331backed Yes1c20,873$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953c…1c63backed Yes1c20,841$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc852…2eb6backed Yes1c20,840$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f48…2d42backed Yes1c20,794$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a7a…e65dbacked Yes1c20,758$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f6…fcd5backed Yes1c20,668$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b44…8440backed Yes1c20,562$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e8…36c4backed Yes1c20,511$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7212…e911backed Yes1c20,274$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1afb…6dc0backed Yes1c20,154$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5874…4525backed Yes1c20,106$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9874…9a33backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe34b…157ebacked Yes1c19,913$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0256…7456backed Yes1c19,828$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef9…d44cbacked Yes1c19,813$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x467c…330ebacked Yes1c19,758$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5467…a73fbacked Yes1c19,506$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…25bcbacked Yes1c19,428$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd949…2f7fbacked Yes1c19,418$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5881…2c2cbacked Yes1c19,336$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e93…5391backed Yes1c19,278$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20f…d769backed Yes1c19,252$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842b…0566backed Yes1c19,249$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ee…bb72backed Yes1c19,226$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a0…db7fbacked Yes1c19,148$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7653…02f1backed Yes1c19,123$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1270…7ae1backed Yes1c19,107$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8874…c330backed Yes1c19,003$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf305…7d4abacked Yes1c18,622$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92be…41a5backed Yes1c18,619$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.