TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,606,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,556,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,606,712 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c459,366$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.83392.6%1 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes0c144,416$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.837532%24 W · 51 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c135,056$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.58230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes1c89,660$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.02313.2%1 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c82,602$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.81440%0 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes1c80,722$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf0c…1146backed Yes1c66,550$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb314…e0c5backed Yes0c38,006$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e9…5105backed Yes1c33,227$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c30,423$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.123116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-65.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4f…cceabacked Yes0c27,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a82…8a84backed Yes0c26,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa35…f0c3backed Yes0c25,278$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc4…0705backed Yes1c24,936$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.492548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c24,312$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.48530%0 W · 53 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bc…67e3backed Yes0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ee…421cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5da…0f8ebacked Yes1c17,011$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c1…5ffcbacked Yes0c14,977$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59bb…4527backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e46…8227backed Yes1c11,937$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes1c10,658$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.073225%8 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8439…432abacked Yes1c9,458$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e5…7b67backed Yes1c8,667$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39b…0d73backed Yes1c6,702$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…fa64backed Yes1c6,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435e…eb53backed Yes0c5,820$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39c…2243backed Yes0c5,820$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b8…58aabacked Yes0c5,820$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ab…a316backed Yes1c5,786$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8eb…cce3backed Yes1c5,700$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9488…b5a6backed Yes0c5,650$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes1c5,443$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.256613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…0f0cbacked Yes1c5,071$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155820.7%12 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0240…e3a1backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b66…849ebacked Yes1c4,754$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x275b…b7e3backed Yes1c4,754$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2467…8d9ebacked Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed46…a0a7backed Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5055…3ae1backed Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c4…4417backed Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd09a…6e98backed Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9382…aee7backed Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b52…67c1backed Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a90…318dbacked Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e6…75e8backed Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283e…5b6ebacked Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d76…adadbacked Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8792…e951backed Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…664dbacked Yes1c4,721$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e79…6137backed Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949a…27c6backed Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d8…fd9dbacked Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c2…90eebacked Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa524…324cbacked Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff6…6effbacked Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb2d…3620backed Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190e…490ebacked Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x020a…50ecbacked Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb518…f5a8backed Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c2…d700backed Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ed…5ba6backed Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c2…9352backed Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa536…b511backed Yes1c4,706$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee11…6f87backed Yes1c4,594$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a5…cbf9backed Yes1c4,594$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x319f…004ebacked Yes1c4,594$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891e…5d9cbacked Yes1c4,514$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bf…cf2bbacked Yes1c4,495$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.477540%30 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes1c4,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a85…499fbacked Yes1c3,788$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb36…b508backed Yes1c3,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da8…5204backed Yes1c3,180$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c4…8e66backed Yes1c3,143$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…78b8backed Yes1c3,143$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf70a…0a2dbacked Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-51%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5b…318cbacked Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf9…c7dabacked Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed57…aabcbacked Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a49…b957backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe66…8106backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf281…b23ebacked Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8abd…df85backed Yes1c2,937$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Yes0c2,904$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6211951.3%61 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5e…5e1ebacked Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0314…0baabacked Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No54c2,675$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.821464.3%9 W · 5 L+4.9wins+0.35per pick29cpaid+168.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x204a…58edbacked Yes1c2,666$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…2c62backed Yes1c2,664$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c76…320bbacked Yes1c2,656$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd13…0626backed Yes1c2,571$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes0c2,569$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed1…f3a5backed Yes1c2,562$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.78160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9dd…ab3abacked Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52a…f455backed Yes1c2,498$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Yes1c2,496$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.