TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$568,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $568,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Yes9c77,092$6,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,938.2516645.8%76 W · 90 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes5c58,829$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.997532%24 W · 51 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes10c32,196$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.7511441.2%47 W · 67 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Yes9c15,622$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.0124457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes5c12,330$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.136613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes10c12,140$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.4715431.8%49 W · 105 L-12.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1af…fac3backed Yes4c10,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc9…2c38backed Yes6c8,041$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.46137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-90.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed Yes6c7,617$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.481758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes9c6,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5851811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Yes8c6,205$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.3636242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes5c6,001$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2281846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Yes7c5,851$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3765345%294 W · 359 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes2c5,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5811141.4%46 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a7…7ebbbacked Yes5c5,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaac1…93c7backed Yes10c4,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3af3…dc15backed Yes7c4,285$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.011225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Yes6c4,208$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes7c4,122$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.541,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+94.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0274…307bbacked Yes5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes9c3,938$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.852236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes9c3,800$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34234845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,641$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6522516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c3,350$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.14234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-91.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5827…69dcbacked Yes7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes8c2,600$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20138445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes6c2,400$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes7c2,338$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2526547.5%126 W · 139 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdeb…22dbbacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71cc…ded5backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5f…9761backed Yes7c1,947$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.291323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a95…7274backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Yes9c1,508$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.79942.4%42 W · 57 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f1e…f334backed Yes7c1,470$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.57100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Yes9c1,470$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.321750.2%109 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c5…b284backed Yes7c1,455$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c1,370$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0c…3190backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a95…2d06backed Yes9c1,230$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.181330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes5c1,223$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.931,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes2c1,101$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0233837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes8c1,100$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8272…541dbacked Yes9c1,100$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.69128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes10c1,020$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026850%34 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes7c1,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x527c…abc2backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7238…cbc1backed Yes2c952.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes9c891.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7931744.2%140 W · 177 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes2c873.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc631…1beabacked Yes6c841$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes5c800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf0…6215backed Yes6c800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x665f…9a23backed Yes9c777.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes3c763.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6213440.3%54 W · 80 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9394…45e5backed Yes7c761.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c724.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0691334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ff…028dbacked Yes7c698.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes7c691.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.141811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes11c690.11$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.918350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked Yes6c669.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1911747%55 W · 62 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c655.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.45180%0 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes11c649.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.512438.7%48 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c601.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4360741%249 W · 358 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5531…76fcbacked Yes5c594.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.663336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc4…0705backed Yes7c545.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.162548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c3…5398backed Yes2c513.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d7…4355backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff0…8d62backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6272…3f00backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes7c473.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.331216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0096…e5b7backed Yes2c461.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8039…6b4bbacked Yes7c426.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Yes7c415.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2113043.8%57 W · 73 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2602…c021backed Yes7c407$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccba…0ce8backed Yes5c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a27…8925backed Yes7c359$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b7…63f1backed Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Yes7c354.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe89d…b80ebacked Yes6c303.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.713554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0875…9577backed Yes9c289.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.05425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d3…a725backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd88f…8d2cbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013837.7%52 W · 86 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cd0…0af0backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200a…d498backed Yes6c270$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Yes5c250.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes6c238.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.642623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe51…e6fdbacked Yes6c235$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58c…2d2cbacked Yes10c232.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.091435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e1…e922backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8611…8f64backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328a…224abacked Yes7c217$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes6c202$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.972,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.