TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa0d3…a725

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Olympics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Olympics at 55 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+118.9%+$16.64
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+67.2%+$16.14
Broncos vs. Raidersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$43.26
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$17.4
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Chargers vs. Texansbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bengals vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$16
Bills vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+61.3%+$11.26
Browns vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+36.3%+$10.52
Falcons vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+72.4%+$10.86
Raiders vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+37%+$4.81
All 15 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+307.6%+$396.8
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 American League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$81
Dodgers vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Twins vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+136.1%+$51.72
Twins vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Nationals vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Twins vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Blue Jays vs. Marlinsbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Blue Jays vs. Marlinsbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$20
Blue Jays vs. Piratesbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Blue Jays vs. Piratesbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST70%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+31.6%+$12.32
Ohio State vs. Texasbacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+42.9%+$12.98
Notre Dame vs. Penn Statebacked Notre Dame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+51.4%+$10.28
Rutgers vs. Kansas Statebacked Kansas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+28.2%+$8.46
Navy vs. Armybacked Army · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$46.49
All 5 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+165.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Raptorsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+37%+$9.25
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$32.63
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.