NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ff977a8301d4011d6ce9e016fff5fd19155dc733ca6e9535597b140563f0624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x540c…a634backed Capitals | 48c | 1,574$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.84 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 1,288$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Capitals | 65c | 1,130$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.97 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Capitals | 42c | 999.82$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.89 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 715.36$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.6 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Maple Leafs | 8c | 444.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 435$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Capitals | 44c | 430$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Capitals | 47c | 419.96$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.7 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 400$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 380$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.83 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 344.39$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.86 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…dbdebacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7037…7ba4backed Capitals | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 242.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Capitals | 42c | 227.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef3…c555backed Capitals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Maple Leafs | 52c | 202$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Capitals | 46c | 200.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd9…ad08backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 191.23$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…4a1fbacked Capitals | 43c | 191.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…26aebacked Capitals | 45c | 176$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 49cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…4bdabacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 176$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…e0fabacked Capitals | 45c | 176$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…2b42backed Capitals | 45c | 175.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…9a07backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 175.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac7…3ec5backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 175.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.37per pick | 51cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed Capitals | 45c | 166.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Maple Leafs | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…9054backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 132$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…c4e8backed Capitals | 45c | 132$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Maple Leafs | 38c | 131.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | +29.4wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Capitals | 46c | 118.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 212 | 55.7%118 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Capitals | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd767…50bebacked Maple Leafs | 35c | 116.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 111.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…3e01backed Capitals | 44c | 105.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Capitals | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 205 | 40.5%83 W · 122 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Capitals | 43c | 98.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 98.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…5932backed Capitals | 45c | 94.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 84.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…e2d6backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 84.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…0348backed Capitals | 45c | 84.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f05…6bd8backed Capitals | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9658…8f9dbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…7359backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…fbdcbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 76.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3d…f363backed Capitals | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…a725backed Maple Leafs | 23c | 74.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…86c6backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 64.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…5531backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 61.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…b468backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 59.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…657dbacked Capitals | 44c | 56.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…f86dbacked Capitals | 35c | 51.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 51.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…98d0backed Capitals | 45c | 44.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…4f6dbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…74eebacked Capitals | 59c | 37.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…879ebacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…15fabacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 33.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Capitals | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 249 | 45.8%114 W · 135 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…b25fbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 31.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 30.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…04bebacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 25.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…54dcbacked Capitals | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57be…2750backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 24.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…21b5backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 24.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…8781backed Capitals | 59c | 24.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…947fbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc5…817ebacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…6c2abacked Capitals | 65c | 19.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe66…429dbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 17.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.