TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,625,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,765,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,625,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,638 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Celtics61c71,115$43,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,614.689641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Celtics58c50,958$29,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,443.3317861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Raptors43c50,958$21,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,952.921450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Celtics63c43,414$27,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,179.9538649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Raptors11c36,547$4,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,072.981,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Celtics57c35,051$20,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,967.7387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Celtics60c33,398$20,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,378.4134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raptors40c31,228$12,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,508.312,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Raptors42c30,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,499.8851350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Celtics58c26,500$15,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,119.9656945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Raptors42c25,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,499.881,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors39c24,221$9,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,403.775,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors26c21,584$5,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,627.994,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Raptors40c21,000$8,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,3506352.4%33 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Raptors41c20,000$8,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,299.981,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Raptors31c17,867$5,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,470.8826038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Raptors42c17,821$7,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,477.0869852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics57c17,146$9,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,428.022,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Raptors40c16,945$6,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,777.831,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Raptors42c15,942$6,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,775.2735547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed Raptors54c13,000$6,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,991.651553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics56c13,000$7,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,72074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Celtics55c12,673$7,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,650.331,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Raptors19c11,207$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.261,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics68c10,720$7,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,398.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Celtics74c10,278$7,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.197259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Celtics57c8,207$4,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,528.9113455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Raptors19c7,909$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.6927041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raptors41c7,500$3,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0752,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Celtics60c6,320$3,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.1319136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe07f…c3bcbacked Celtics59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Raptors41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.9916942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a23…fa9bbacked Celtics72c5,652$4,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.372958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Celtics57c5,555$3,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.6527251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Raptors1c5,280$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735911.9%7 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Celtics73c5,246$3,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed Raptors43c5,052$2,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.4812646%58 W · 68 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Celtics74c5,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Raptors7c4,963$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.2762848.7%306 W · 322 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8f…52f4backed Raptors43c4,816$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.71520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Raptors42c4,792$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.5644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Raptors43c4,651$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9311741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Raptors20c4,605$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.0280146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Raptors16c4,466$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.161,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Raptors39c4,326$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,67651753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Raptors29c4,300$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.292142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Celtics55c4,268$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.9420454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Raptors24c4,098$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.881,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors43c3,742$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.413,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Celtics52c3,733$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.3444654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics59c3,682$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.96,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Celtics62c3,679$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.9350838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x272b…c543backed Raptors45c3,410$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d4…dbd6backed Celtics61c3,365$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.052763%17 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raptors42c3,356$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.692,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Raptors6c3,240$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2146342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Raptors29c3,201$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.148845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Celtics77c3,201$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.4952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Raptors41c3,139$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.571,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Raptors42c3,000$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.771,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca8…c951backed Raptors44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3203026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c4…48d7backed Celtics56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3204165.9%27 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Celtics58c2,854$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.354,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Celtics61c2,838$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.8210144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Raptors18c2,811$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.2437930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Raptors39c2,809$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.375657.1%32 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors43c2,731$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.122,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2c…1b20backed Raptors15c2,616$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.114533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Celtics75c2,610$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.5934852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Celtics56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.9976249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Raptors41c2,499$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ba…8a09backed Raptors45c2,400$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0684223.8%10 W · 32 L-8.2wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x48cd…206fbacked Raptors42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Raptors43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e39…07ddbacked Celtics59c2,320$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Raptors35c2,275$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.8746632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Raptors42c2,246$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.339838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Celtics73c2,218$1,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.7885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Celtics58c2,109$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.9114254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Raptors25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Raptors42c2,000$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.395641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Celtics59c2,000$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82516749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Raptors43c2,000$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8555655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Raptors41c2,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9722637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Celtics78c1,929$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.1727152%141 W · 130 L-17.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Celtics52c1,925$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.949336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3552…2f1cbacked Celtics59c1,864$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe850…ad70backed Raptors42c1,850$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7771060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+40%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Raptors43c1,813$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.6595049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Raptors43c1,805$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.147347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Raptors24c1,790$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.821723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Raptors42c1,786$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b45…41e3backed Raptors42c1,722$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.642236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4877…7f00backed Raptors41c1,700$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.981145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d24…b6ddbacked Celtics58c1,679$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.056947.8%33 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Raptors43c1,628$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raptors41c1,624$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6642,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0621…13d1backed Raptors41c1,600$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6561136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58f…51d6backed Celtics61c1,566$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.4227248.5%132 W · 140 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.