NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d72bee27d2e139741e1ef1b1bc1ec4997392727f64f81601383392fa3294d3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Raptors | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Raptors | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,199.98 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…4eaebacked Celtics | 53c | 12,093$6,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,683.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.93 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Celtics | 54c | 9,317$5,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,285.72 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Raptors | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…2fc8backed Celtics | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Raptors | 47c | 3,998$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.14 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Celtics | 54c | 3,333$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.18 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 52c | 2,938$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.85 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors | 54c | 2,796$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Celtics | 50c | 2,685$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.5 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 48c | 2,106$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.58 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…b51dbacked Celtics | 54c | 2,091$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d59…778dbacked Celtics | 54c | 2,037$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Celtics | 53c | 1,613$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.78 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Raptors | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Celtics | 53c | 1,351$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.94 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Celtics | 55c | 1,332$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.67 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Raptors | 45c | 1,127$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.27 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Raptors | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Celtics | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 53c | 1,086$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Celtics | 54c | 1,042$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.41 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Celtics | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Celtics | 53c | 994$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.18 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 48c | 907.81$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 46c | 712.95$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.96 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics | 53c | 566$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803e…b070backed Celtics | 53c | 564.15$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics | 54c | 497$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.54 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 53c | 497$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.59 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Raptors | 49c | 421.63$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 32c | 214.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Celtics | 53c | 211$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Raptors | 49c | 205.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Raptors | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Celtics | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d12…31e0backed Celtics | 53c | 169.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 53c | 151.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Celtics | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…cc0fbacked Raptors | 48c | 114.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Raptors | 48c | 109.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Raptors | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Raptors | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Raptors | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Celtics | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Celtics | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…8a2abacked Celtics | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef7…b64bbacked Raptors | 46c | 88.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Celtics | 53c | 86.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Celtics | 54c | 75.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Celtics | 56c | 71.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Raptors | 48c | 62.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Celtics | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Raptors | 49c | 50.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Raptors | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Raptors | 47c | 49.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Celtics | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Raptors | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Raptors | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Celtics | 52c | 39.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5009backed Celtics | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Celtics | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Raptors | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Raptors | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Raptors | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Raptors | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Raptors | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raptors | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…8211backed Celtics | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Celtics | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…c9e3backed Celtics | 53c | 23.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Raptors | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…196ebacked Celtics | 50c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf8…a71ebacked Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1cddbacked Celtics | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. RaptorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.