NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf9d03e03d7367b4b52079b17a7b157dd4d787611eb05ca2db6f5f80541e71bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c50…a2a9backed Under | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Over | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,650 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 14,202$7,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,134.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 52c | 11,040$5,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,245.38 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 9,548$4,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,867.51 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 48c | 8,839$4,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,624.79 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 58c | 5,158$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.32 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.49 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 1,542$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.46 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 1,179$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.59 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 49c | 1,080$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.8 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 50c | 740$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 9c | 633.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 502$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.9 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 486$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…4a7fbacked Under | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…061cbacked Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Under | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d6…9e5bbacked Over | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 161$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…7377backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 99.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 97.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…a1aabacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 82.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c2…3066backed Under | 53c | 40.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa88…b48bbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 34.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0834…609fbacked Over | 55c | 18.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. RaptorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.