NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7834ecc8129286052fc9d79cbd094b46a455fd2d775d8020ac65d9284ba5bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,052$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 1,828$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…9bf3backed Over | 50c | 1,326$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 50c | 473$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…d7e3backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 293$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Over | 53c | 113$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 53c | 53.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 51c | 30.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c2…3066backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. RaptorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.