MLB · resolved market
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 American League Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf70bc7474097f7c34665be3e97755ec6b99abeb14420d7a4ff785f406beec39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 10c | 12,442$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.88 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 28c | 11,625$3,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,209.28 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Yes | 8c | 8,205$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.4 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 32c | 7,463$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.13 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed Yes | 19c | 5,196$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 23c | 4,241$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.8 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 75c | 3,882$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.82 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 79c | 3,658$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.43 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…0a12backed Yes | 10c | 3,543$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 11c | 2,464$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.05 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 18c | 1,750$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…bb52backed Yes | 20c | 1,561$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,201$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 1,077$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 25c | 912.27$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.89 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 31c | 599$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.07 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 10c | 546.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…0309backed No | 72c | 546.13$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 19c | 514$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 77c | 420$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 367.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 362.8$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…a725backed Yes | 24c | 342.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 17c | 263.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 19c | 262$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…09a5backed Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 19c | 257.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 69c | 245.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 70c | 203$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…65cdbacked Yes | 23c | 174.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 162$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…a39dbacked Yes | 19c | 154.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 18c | 146$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +255.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…d395backed Yes | 22c | 138.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 69c | 120.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 103.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…e43dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bc…72c8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…f7d3backed No | 80c | 96.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 20c | 91.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 16c | 80.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…d28ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…2305backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…5297backed No | 70c | 62.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…baacbacked Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 54.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…cd0bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb489…1995backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…be0cbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 American League Championship?this page
- Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.