TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 American League Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$302,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes75c33,884$25,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,264.376855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Yes44c30,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,2003450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yes45c24,227$10,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,904.436653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yes62c13,630$8,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,482.0411759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes44c9,945$4,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,375.7135854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No17c9,109$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,574.967035.7%25 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes38c7,268$2,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,725.451,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x991a…2411backed Yes39c4,617$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.584459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes63c4,096$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.254445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes54c3,774$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.196133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes31c3,577$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.962842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5046…2909backed No58c3,506$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92c3…b29ebacked No48c3,333$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe059…20b4backed No48c3,204$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed6…5e00backed Yes53c3,199$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes40c3,114$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.9821538.6%83 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes48c3,008$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.887164.8%46 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa068…9574backed No30c2,959$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.411546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Yes45c2,952$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.158356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Yes68c2,871$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.381631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+76%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ff…bb52backed Yes25c2,702$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9d2…58eebacked Yes64c2,500$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes13c2,430$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.5118837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe13a…ee7abacked Yes16c2,405$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes10c2,358$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd3…f7d3backed Yes39c2,125$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.973135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes33c2,099$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.591,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe0…1364backed Yes48c2,043$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x876f…bbfebacked Yes70c1,960$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes38c1,855$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.89650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7976…34f7backed No31c1,754$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes9c1,426$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.318125.9%21 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e6…7b09backed Yes55c1,355$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed No52c1,277$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.7260249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked No34c1,150$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76216945%76 W · 93 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes49c1,140$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.412343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf7c…e8fbbacked No44c1,100$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No26c1,061$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.929725.8%25 W · 72 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No56c937.97$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.724443.2%19 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes33c857.95$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.721,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd586…87cfbacked Yes32c833.32$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.661010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-77.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No63c829.32$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea5…9b1cbacked No31c799$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+221%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No41c759.99$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.491050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…d749backed No48c732$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Yes60c701.06$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.889947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes7c670.78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.926642.1%112 W · 154 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e45…eb58backed Yes53c629$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3971…b81cbacked Yes69c626$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes52c619.49$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.117041.4%29 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfda9…0aa8backed Yes53c617.72$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3252825%7 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes24c582$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.68714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c3…973ebacked Yes9c572.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c568.88$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.9916248.8%79 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c535.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.233929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9969…bf7fbacked Yes58c520$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ad…b1bbbacked No36c517.76$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Yes78c501.91$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.216243.5%27 W · 35 L-9.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1607544%33 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa246…f8b9backed No45c494$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Yes46c493.34$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.945752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes10c492.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.291,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed No80c486.06$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.151330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-46%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7cc…8cd3backed Yes57c457$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff8b…effcbacked Yes15c425.29$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.647444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc5…ccd8backed No32c386$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+214.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8011…e98ebacked No75c375.99$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.41540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47b6…bc7dbacked Yes63c370$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb225…d86bbacked Yes27c368.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No57c364.59$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5563942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…73c1backed Yes68c363$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec73…303fbacked No35c354.83$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.49785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.42per pick43cpaid+95.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdacf…3c74backed Yes74c308.95$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.621353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes8c306.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6816725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes20c300$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.752817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes27c278.35$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7624250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36df…f93cbacked Yes63c275$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c2…56acbacked No31c271$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+223.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a07…93ebbacked Yes68c266$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes65c261.94$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.451520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6e…d36abacked Yes16c254.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9f…97d1backed Yes53c251$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…793dbacked Yes9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56456.3%36 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No76c232.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.051040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56c1…a4d1backed No53c216$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15cc…df59backed No32c215$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+216.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8987…21e8backed Yes69c201$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa54…c182backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443129%9 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e44…9d02backed No36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8327…64cdbacked Yes67c189.97$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd326…72efbacked No36c184.47$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes20c174$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.59751.5%50 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24d3…8f94backed No31c171$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+220%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes49c164$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.524,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6259…257cbacked No44c163$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Yes64c157.54$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.836357.1%36 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7799…377ebacked Yes47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No78c148.56$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.