TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 American League Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,852
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,852 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes14c2,758$391 inLost-$390.9418837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes9c2,151$186 inLost-$185.53129%9 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes17c2,069$344 inLost-$344.231,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes23c999.96$230 inLost-$2309725.8%25 W · 72 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes18c709.41$128 inLost-$127.691,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes13c570.99$75 inLost-$75.1624250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa54…c182backed Yes19c400$77 inLost-$76.673129%9 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82a3…88d0backed Yes16c267$43 inLost-$42.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+255.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes17c255$43 inLost-$43.3561346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes13c219$28 inLost-$28.477841%32 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes18c218.63$40 inLost-$40.082817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes20c187.68$37 inLost-$37.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes16c178$28 inLost-$28.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost-$202227.3%6 W · 16 L-5.0wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-50.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes11c122.27$14 inLost-$13.684445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes12c103.82$12 inLost-$12.0226642.1%112 W · 154 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc3b…bdc3backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf69c…e43dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10375.4%2 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…ce87backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe5…0309backed No79c52$41 inWon+$11.18785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick76cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No79c50$40 inWon+$10.52937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No77c22.83$18 inWon+$5.251421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.