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MLB · resolved market

Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 American League Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,528 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ca7…0a12backed Yes12c3,598$417 inLost-$416.931154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+109.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes12c3,259$391 inLost-$391.11,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes4c3,101$127 inLost-$127.1100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes9c2,814$249 inLost-$248.851,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,366$25 inLost-$25.293929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ea…e15cbacked Yes11c1,770$200 inLost-$20022351.6%115 W · 108 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes4c1,529$68 inLost-$68.118837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes10c1,018$106 inLost-$106.371,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f4…1e3dbacked Yes10c954.91$92 inLost-$92.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Yes9c902.91$83 inLost-$83.213324.2%8 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c739.49$26 inLost-$26.23568.9%5 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+105.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes8c710$56 inLost-$56.373129%9 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e63…1cedbacked Yes11c560.75$60 inLost-$603231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed Yes11c500.06$56 inLost-$55.95616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes4c489.09$21 inLost-$20.5416248.8%79 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes5c440.92$24 inLost-$24.088749.4%43 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes10c400$40 inLost-$4016934.9%59 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c336.95$20 inLost-$19.5763942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes8c300$23 inLost-$22.72817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes8c225$18 inLost-$1860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3b…bdc3backed Yes10c200$19 inLost-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Yes8c150.5$12 inLost-$12.043836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0119…c14abacked Yes11c117.71$13 inLost-$13825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb8…baacbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost-$10.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa555…2d6fbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost-$10.71968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No79c42$33 inWon+$8.822263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.